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Vienna_Hokie

Joined: 09/16/2002 Posts: 12425
Likes: 5471


I've always had a bit of a so what attitude about the weather forecasts


For the most part, my life isn't going to change as a result. I may schedule something and have it interrupted by weather, but in the end, so what. Given the variability of weather, I'm actually amazed how right they are (remember, an 80% chance of rain means a 20% chance it won't).

The only time it really matters is if something severe is happening. After 10 years in the midwest, tornado reporting mattered because it told you when to take shelter and could mean the difference between life and death. But that type of reporting is real time, you see what is going on, where it is going and the forecasts of where it is going are usually pretty solid.

What amazes me more is that given how bad those models that have so much data and history in them perform, how much people are willing to accept without question the results of models with far less data and far less validated history.

(In response to this post by VT Pops)

Posted: 07/10/2020 at 08:03AM



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Current Thread:
 
  
Hot take -- VT Pops 07/10/2020 07:44AM
  Attended a presentation by someone from NWS years ago -- Tafkam Hokie 07/10/2020 09:56AM
  Anything more than 3 days out is just guessing. -- HokieGator 07/10/2020 08:13AM
  Armchair scientists are the best ** -- VTSnake 07/10/2020 08:10AM
  Define “awful”. ** -- BobG 07/10/2020 07:58AM
  “Very bad” -- VT Pops 07/10/2020 08:05AM
  Please don’t be condescending -- VT Pops 07/10/2020 08:27AM
  Exactly -- VT Pops 07/10/2020 08:22AM

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